Will Moderna’s Stock Price Rise in 2023?

Moderna Inc. is one of the stocks that experienced fast growth due to the breakout of the pandemic, and has subsequently fallen. 

Moderna was involved in the creation and distribution of anti-Covid vaccines as a pharmaceutical company focused on delivering solutions based on RNA. 

Moderna is a biotechnology and pharmaceutical company that constantly works on rare diseases, and the production of vaccines is its main activity – along with constant research. 

Moderna, based in the US, showed an increase in the price of its stock until August 2021, but then, as with other companies involved in sectors that could help people to ease the effects of the pandemic, it witnessed a deep correction in the following months. This trend for the pharmaceutical industry is confirmed by the data shared by Deloitte: according to that firm, the return on investments (ROI) related to the pharmaceutical sector has fallen in 2022 to reach the lowest levels in 13 years.  

Moderna stock is an example to analyze the whole pharmaceutical market since it was one of the top players during the past years. This stock represents the current situation of the whole industry, which faced a slowdown, especially during the past year.

For the future, this stock was chosen to share a deep analysis that led us to a forecast for 2023. Forecasts, despite the risks involved with this kind of activity, are useful guidelines to understand the possible developments of a stock – and of entire markets, to understand if they are affected by macroeconomic conditions. 

Currently, the banking crisis is negatively affecting how people invest in stocks, since many companies were hit by different bank collapses. But it is pivotal to consider that usually markets follow cycles, and this leads experts to understand the current phase of a stock to forecast the next phase.

Moderna Forecast for 2023

To obtain our forecast we used a mix of technical and fundamental analysis: the first one is carried out by analyzing the past performance of the stock, in order to recognize possible patterns and check whether the stock tends to develop in similar cycles over time, while fundamental analysis is pivotal to understand the current situation of the company that issues this stock.

Moderna is listed on the Nasdaq, under the ticker MRNA: the company, founded in 2010, went public in 2018, at a price of $23 per share. 

At the time of writing, MRNA is traded at over $148. 

This represents an increase if we consider the initial price, but we need to consider that the current price of the stock is the result of a correction that amounts to almost -70% if compared with the all-time high. That was reached during one of the toughest phases of the pandemic and corresponded to over $484 (reached by the Moderna stock on August 9, 2021). 

Currently, MRNA is following a sideways movement with a high concentration of trading volume in the range between $115 and $217 – with the highest trading volume peaks in the price area around $138. This is the signal of a congestion phase that could represent the accumulation phase before a new uptrend. 

If we analyze the previous complete cycle of MRNA, the accumulation phase might last several months, leading to the possible conclusion that the price of the stock could slightly exceed $200 by the end of 2023, before starting a new positive phase – or uptrend. 

For the financial health of Moderna Inc., the data are positive: as reported by TradingView, the short and long-term assets of the company exceed its liabilities. This means that the elements that add value to the company are more than the elements that add risk and obligations. Also, the forecasts related to the revenue of the company – it is expected to report on May 11, 2023 – are positive: analysts expect + US$1.191 billion in revenue.

To compare our forecast with the forecasts of other professionals, the opinion of traders and investors is that the average future price target is in a range between $201 and $217.

Of course, no predictions can be absolutely correct: investing always involves risks. Traders and investors have different tools to mitigate this risk: 

• The first measure should always be to avoid investing more than they can afford to lose; 
• Consider only reliable forecasts in case of uncertainty; 
• Analyze price charts to check the past developments of the stock, and to identify patterns that can help the trader or investor make forecasts. 

For what concerns the general situation of the company and its future, it is important to make some considerations related to Moderna Inc. 

In general, despite the fact that demand for the Covid-19 vaccine produced by Moderna should drop, this company is among the companies in the pharmaceutical industry that obtained approval for its RSV vaccine. 

This represents a considerable result if we take into account that other top companies like Johnson & Johnson are no longer among the possible producers of this new vaccine soon.

Conclusion

Moderna stock is issued by one of the top companies in the pharmaceutical industry. It made headlines after the breakout of the pandemic, especially for producing one of the anti-Covid vaccines. 

The price of the stock mirrored the activity of the company, witnessing consistent growth. 

As the stocks issued by many other companies involved in the main measures used to fight the pandemic, Moderna stock – MRNA – faced deep corrections in the past months. 

The stock seems now in an accumulation phase, suggesting a possible uptrend, setting the Moderna stock forecast for 2023 at an average price target slightly above $200. 

Despite our forecast being in line with the forecasts of other professional traders and investors, it is important to consider that forecasts might not be correct, and traders and investors should always analyze a stock and do further research before investing. 

FAQ