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In the realm of car stock, Tesla has always been a bit of an outlier due to its unusual volatility, often connected to Elon Musk’s public shenanigans. However, despite some spikes or drops in the short term, the stock has performed well in general in the long term.
And while the company is facing many challenges in 2023, the potential for growth continues to be there. But will March be one of those months with short term growth, or shrinkage?
Read on to learn about Tesla’s market performance and stock value going into March 2023.
Tesla Going into March 2023
In recent years, Tesla (TSLA) has been one of the most spectacular stocks in history, particularly during its stratospheric run between mid-2019 and late 2021. Stock prices fell to 101.84 on Jan 6. The stock of Tesla has soared about 93% since then.
Tesla’s fourth-quarter results were mixed on January, topping earnings estimates but falling short on revenue. Musk, however, said he was bullish about 2023, which continued to drive the stock upward.
According to Tesla, 66,051 China-made vehicles were sold in January. Compared to a year ago, sales are up 10.4%, and compared to December, sales are up 18.4%. Sales include exports, according to the China Passenger Car Association. Despite slashed China prices, Tesla’s Shanghai facility delivered a record number of cars last month.
But the truth is that Tesla’s highly anticipated fourth-quarter results and guidance/commentary for 2023 had a lot riding on them.
Tesla’s delivery growth target this year was hittable/beatable in the 38% range, an estimate that was deemed as conservative by some analysts because China demand has begun to rebound meaningfully.
In spite of a growing number of competitors in the electric vehicle market, Tesla remains the global EV leader thanks to its vertical integration and self-driving capabilities.
Another factor that is helping the Tesla stock grow is their new projects. After five years of anticipation, Tesla unveiled its long-awaited Semi, an electric long-haul truck with 18 wheels. As well as building out a charging network for long-haul trucks, Musk has hinted that he has plans to do so.
While it is unclear how much the 18-wheeler costs, its performance data was released by Tesla. According to estimates, the Semi can travel 500 miles on a single charge. Tesla claims it can accelerate from zero to 60 in 20 seconds. 50,000 units are expected to be delivered in 2024 as the company ramps up production over the next year.
In a recent note, CFRA analyst Garrett Nelson said he is bullish on demand for the Semi as TSLA ramps up production to 50K units in 2024. Large corporations seeking to reduce their carbon footprints are likely to show considerable interest.
But it isn’t all sunshine and rainbows. This month, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration announced a recall of 363,000 Tesla vehicles with its Full Self-Driving software due to safety concerns.
In its analysis of Tesla’s FSD feature, the NHTSA found that the vehicle’s insufficient adherence to traffic safety laws created an unreasonable risk to vehicle safety. However, a software update over-the-air will attempt to fix the self-driving feature, according to Tesla.
Despite Tesla’s recent recovery, it is hard to identify a base and a good buying zone. Over the past few months, the 200-day price level has served as both resistance and support.
It is likely that the stock will pull back after rising for the past six weeks. In the last few days, sellers have begun to approach the 200-day line. A pullback is difficult to predict right now. There are no sell signals, but there are no good entry points either. Therefore, Tesla stock should not be purchased.
Tesla has a Composite Rating of 71 out of 99 according to the IBD Stock Checkup tool. Focus on stocks with a Composite Rating of 90 or higher when choosing growth stocks with the best potential gains. A weak 28 is its Relative Strength
According to IBD’s Auto Manufacturers industry group, Tesla shares rank fourth. The Composite Ratin
Technical Analysis – 2022
While most EV companies, including Tesla, saw their shares skyrocket in 2020 and 2021, this year didn’t bring good news.
Tesla’s stock price has dropped at least 44% this year, reaching $168, which is 50% below its value in 2021.
As of the close on November 4, the company’s shares were trading at $207.47. However, despite opening on November 7 slightly above ($208.65), the price has been in a tailspin ever since.
On November 9, Tesla’s shares were down to $177.59 at its close. However, on Thursday, November 10, they rallied, reaching $190.72 at the close and rising further to $195.97 on Friday.
After the weekend, on November 14, the company’s shares dipped to 190.95 before recovering to reach 194.42 on Tuesday. However, since Wednesday, November 16, Tesla’s stock has come into a tailspin again.
On Monday, November 21, the electric car maker’s shares hit a two-year low, falling 6.8% to reach $168 per share. It’s the lowest price that Tesla’s shares have reached in the last two years.
The company’s value has also been affected by its CEO Elon Musk’s actions, as the business mogul sold some of his shares to finance the purchase of the social media platform Twitter.
In 2022 alone, Musk has sold at least $19 billion in stocks. Many investors have followed in his footsteps, dumping their shares in the company, too.
In summary, the fall in Tesla shares is attributed to the same factors that have been impacting the EV manufacturer’s value in recent months: the massive sale of shares and Mr. Musk’s moves.
Many believe that Mr. Musk, a visionary CEO with great influence among investors, is distracted from Tesla to focus on his new acquisition. Actually, since the business mogul bought Twitter, the automaker’s shares are down around 30%.
However, there may be other things influencing the company’s share price. First, investors should consider China’s situation.
Over the weekend, China announced that three Covid-19 patients had died in the capital Beijing. Those were the first Covid-related fatalities since May. In response, local authorities intensified disease control measures.
In addition, Chinese authorities were also forced to lock down the most populous part of the southern port city of Guangzhou after coronavirus cases soared.
Tesla’s largest plant is in Shanghai. Therefore, investors fear China’s tight restrictions will have a significant impact on the company’s fourth quarter.
Also, the electric vehicle competition in China is tough. Recently, the company was forced to lower its EV prices in the country due to other similar companies’ competitive rates.
Tesla has also faced logistical problems and is struggling to deliver its electric cars on time. However, it still seems unlikely that the manufacturer will manage to meet its delivery growth target of 50% each year by 2022.
Another development that affected the company’s stock was the recall announcement. Over the weekend, Tesla announced that it would recall 321,000 vehicles in the United States.
Fortunately, however, the news did not have a strong impact on the business at the end of the day. The move was due to some issues that some vehicles had, and the company hopes to solve them with over-the-air updates.
Conclusion
While traditional metrics give Tesla a high valuation despite being in a permanent decline for a long time, deciding to invest in this company’s stock should be well thought out.
Tesla is not the only company in the industry facing problems that could hurt its value. In fact, EV manufacturers continue to struggle amid supply chain shortages, rampant inflation, high cost of materials, semiconductor shortages, lockdowns, and more.
Therefore, in the short term, there are still many factors that can cause Tesla’s shares to continue to fall. However, considering their high valuation, these stocks could be good investment opportunities for those with a long-term strategy, as the EV industry continues to grow.
FAQs
The vehicle manufacturing sector in the automotive industry has a moderate risk profile and Tesla Inc (Tesla) ranks highly among the top fifty companies based on our proprietary risk assessment. In addition to the country-related risk pillar, the industry risk pillar strengthened the company’s overall risk score. The company’s established market position is a strength, but low profitability and a high debt ratio could be concerns.
It is likely that Tesla will face significant challenges in the near term, such as inflation and rising interest rates, which will increase the cost of capital and hurt growth stock valuations. Additionally, investors may be concerned about the activities of Elon Musk, the company’s CEO, who in October purchased Twitter for $44 billion.
After spiraling losses in 2008, Tesla was almost forced to declare bankruptcy. The company’s continued success may be less dependent on one man’s managerial skill and tenacity now that it is well-capitalized and sustainably profitable.
The stock in 2023 has a reasonable price-to-earnings ratio, so investors are enthusiastic about it.
In order to maintain high margins, Tesla still needs to charge relatively high prices for its vehicles.
Despite making good margins and undercutting most of its competitors, Tesla’s vehicles remain costly.
The demand for Tesla is high, but it isn’t guaranteed – there are plenty of alternatives coming, but not quite at the level of Tesla.
In the future, Tesla’s models might appear dated compared to other cars because of their economies of scale – their vehicles might be unaffordable.
In addition to the Model 2 compact car, Tesla has been late on some promises, including the FSD (7 years late), the Tesla Semi, the Cybertruck, the new Roadster, 4680 batteries and Giga Texas. Many of Tesla’s promises have been overpromised and under delivered.
In the near future, Tesla shares are unlikely to fall as far as $10 as the company continues to have a high market valuation.
Depending on the strategy, Tesla’s stock could represent a good long-term investment. However, each investor must weigh all the advantages and disadvantages.
Considering the stock market’s performance over the past month, Tesla’s shares are unlikely to break above $250 any time soon.
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